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The U.S. and South Korea will conduct military exercise in the yellow sea as part of its security arrangements, it also comes in the most peculiar timing, as to its effect on the region and the whole world remains to be seen. Yet one thing is certain it’s highly critical to a point of war hopefully not a literal nuke feast. Both Korea’s have been virtually at war since the 1950′s. Lately the sparks of war is slowly beginning to ignite once again as tension now reach its highest point in decades. A few months had past when allegedly a North Korean Sub sunk a South Korean warship killing more than 40 of its crew and just a few days ago North Korea bombarded an island one of its disputed areas killing a few military personnels and civilians and damaging property in the Island. Though few casualties were mark by the attack, North Korea’s aggressive action spark condemnation all over the world. Putting the entire region and probably the whole world in a war stance than ever before.

Key players to this conflict are now positioning themselves and probably bracing for any eventuality, as the world wait for any outcome.

South Korea

After the devastation brought by the Korean War in the 1950′s South Korea has emerge to become a great economic power house. Despite of being in constant threat of impending attack by its Northern neighbor. South Korea’s economy not to mention military capability remain strong. With Advances in military Technology South Korea can deploy, it is also banking on its allies particularly the U.S. as its broader defense strategy which is very will know. One thing is certain, this country is ready for a re-match. The question is can South Korea maximized its technological advancement and military leadership capability to dictate the outcome of the war with the North and with China if things gets hot.

As I’ve already mentioned if a re-match occurs will South Korea have the upper hand? If one look at it closely, though South Korea indeed have advancement in the lethal tecthnology front its actual military size though substantial is actually small compare to that of the North. Though as an Arm Chair General like myself (ehem!) Having a more modern though small force is preferable due to its flexibility compare to a mindless horde. Then again the art of modern warfare depends on many variables. Another thing to ponder about South Korea is its geographical location. Though strategic South Korea’s only means of supplies like food, Meds and military equipment and allied re-enforcement goes through by Air and a huge bulk of it is in ocean route which can be easily countered by enemy subs. And it’s closes supply dump is Japan. With this in mine South Korea’s fight for survival if a re-match begins , won’t be a cake walk.

Japan

As the most technologically advance country in the world, this country has plenty of military credentials and tons to offer for its allies. As a neighbor to both Koreas and China, its economic prosperity hinge on peace in its own economic sphere of influence. But if eventuality occurs Japan will become a spring broad for allied forces pretty much like what it was in the 1950′s it is important to note that during that time Japan may have benefited economically during that time. Now however, Japan is pretty much a target because of its role as virtual spring board not to mention the not so good history with both North Koreans and the Chinese with regards to Japanese occupation of their homeland in the past century. Another thing to note is North Korea’s long range capability coupled with China, that is if China joins the fray.

United State of America

After WW2 and during the Cold War era the democratization of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and pretty much most if not all of Southeast Asia is seen by the U.S. as a buffer zone for its own security and its very own sphere of influence This provide the U.S. the capability to influence the economic, social and military terms with each of the countries be it good or bad. Now, as the world changes and the arena of international chess board playing is now centered on economic warfare North Korea’s provocative attention seeking action has put all perceived planning in disarray. The U.S. is force and committed once more to keep its interest and sphere of influence intact. A growing concern for Uncle Sam.

In the passed decades the might of the U.S. is unquestionable and totally undeniable even now. Not to mention a thing to be thought of carefully by any would be opposition. Now how ever with its economy still in shambles not to mention the expenses of its current war on terror which is still far from over. The U.S. seems to have spread itself too thin in all aspect, except probably its ultimate Nuclear strategic deterrent solution, which I believe is in constant vigil at any moments notice. One could only speculate the gravity of U.S. action if such eventuality arises and knowing U.S. military strategy its bound to drag many country to join the war to minimized its own risk. One thing is certain though it will haft to be fast and decisive, due to the capabilities of the potential enemy. Though unlike the war on terror this war will be totally different kind, fortunately for the U.S. it’s something that it’s forces are trained to do and they’re good at it. Another concern for the U.S. is its own populace who have grown impatient of the current war it’s in. Adding to its own dilemma is the current economic slowdown. So, support for another war and this time in Korea would be tough. Unless North Korea attack first and kill plenty of Americans. Then again the U.S. is know to capitalized warfare to its own advantage.

Russia

Of all the countries who are involve in this tricky affair Russia is the least thing to come in mine. Though it is a fact that the current division of both Korea was an agreement between the U.S. and then U.S.S.R. during world war 2. It is also a fact that then U.S.S.R. send troops to aid North Korea in the first clash of the Cold war. But what about now? what is at stake for Russia now?. Obviously Russia is not the U.S.S.R. it was once though still formidable to say the least. It would be very interesting which side Russia takes if war became an eventuality. Then again it would be more beneficial for Russia to remain neutral at any point if war is to escalate to a higher level. The victor would still be too weak to go up against her, that would mean a radical shift of global power.

China

Of all the countries who has a great stake in the pie China would be it. Historically it was China who save North Korea from being just another chapter of Korean history much to china’s own interest. China is also North Korea life line to the world. Virtually everything from the basic to the complex flows to North Korea from China. With China’s undeniable raise to power North Korea’s provocative action seem to be more of a liability and very much untimely for China. If an eventuality arises China will have no choice but to allied itself with the aggressive North Korea putting what it work so hard to achieve in virtual standstill. Something that China could not afford to have at this her early entry to global powerhood.

Back Drop

Ever since China slowly becoming and economic power house, It also took great leaps in modernizing it military might. China being the world must powerful force in terms of manpower is in a verge of achieving that. In recent years countries around China from Russia, India, South East Asia, Australia, Japan and South Korea have grown worry about China’s raise to power, though not totally concern about its economic capability but rather its growing military build-up that is seen by many in the region as a potential threat. Particularly it’s aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea. Prompting all countries in the immediate vicinity to be a little bit more edgy. And fast tracking their own modernization efforts to counter a possible Chinese threat.

However if war occurs in the Korean peninsula and China joins the fray. China will enter the war prematurely before it could even maximized or capitalized on its new found wealth. However if China choose to ditch North Korea and opted instead to install its own controllable puppet in North Korea it can buy enough time until it can grow strong enough to survive total confrontation with any country in mind particularly the U.S., Russia or even E.U. Having a victorious Allied force dictate the future of North Korea is very much counter productive to China’s interest.

China’s option

Since China’s military capability is still not enough to counter U.S. and Allied might. Its best option is to take control of North Korea without engaging South Korea the U.S. and the entire region’s security at risk. Frankly speaking North Korea’s aggressive action is far too unpredictable and pretty much a liability for China to be left unattended. After the Bombardment of the South Korean Island, China seem to have step up with emergency talk to calm everybody down. But if it fails what then.


North Korea

With all the countries in the world North Korea remain a great enigma and also a country of dilemma both inside and out. Unpredictable leadership and now it seems to be unstable. With a leadership bent for total control of its own poverty stricken and totally in need of pretty much everything populace.

Some analyst say that North Korea’s action is more center inward rather than outward. With a new shift of leadership to one so young it hope to contain or drive out any unwanted opposition within its own ranks by demonstrating a unification action within itself. A risky play if indeed that is the case. One thing is certain North Korea is gear for war for decades. Imagine a country with the majority of its people live like those in the early 1900s. Yet posses more than a million strong army. And it is even more likely that North Korea has transform itself in to a termite like country, with great emphasis on military aspect rather than the welfare of its own people for the benefit of its God like status leadership. That is truly something to be concern about.

Philippines

What! But really, why should the Philippine be involve on somebody else’s predicament. That is always been been the common reaction to a mis-informed populace.

For starters South Korea in an ally and a very generous one compare to all money first Uncle Sam. The South Korean has a deep sense gratitude to countries who fought and died for them, and save their freedom and the Philippines is on that list. Another point to consider is that if such an eventually arises. A war there is better than here Logically and militarily speaking that is.

But the question is will Pnoy’s administration send or commit a contingent of combat troops like that in the past Korean war? Obviously if Pnoy sends combat troops to Korea. History repeat itself one more time like Britney Spears singing “hit me baby one more time” for one, Filipino troops who are send to the new Korean conflict if ever, won’t have much except probably the tropical uniforms they bring with them in the conflict. Unlike the war in the 1950′s this war will be a modern war which involve modern weaponry something the Filipino soldier know little about despite that fact that majority of these Filipino soldier are battle hardened and keen for a fight. Pretty much like what happened during the last Korean War. I can recall the incident wherein a Philippine Tank battalion defended a particular area during the Korean conflict without a single tank at hand, yet perform the job that exceeded expectation not just that but all the mission assign to them.

At any rate any Philippine involvement in a New Korean Conflict needs to be thought of deeply. And I’m sure as much as our brave soldiers would like to help defend South Korea. The need to modernized the Armed Forces is a an immediate priority apparently with things going on in the Philippines its easier said than done.